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A NEW Trace! The FULL MH370 Story...So Far.

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Petter from Mentour Pilot gives an excellent summary of MH370 so far and calls for a renewed search. (www.youtube.com) さらに...

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ni5f
Bill Echols 14
WSPR is a low-power protocol, usually 5-watts of RF power output, used to test propagation on many, mostly HF (shortwave) frequencies. The transmitters key for 1-minute 50-seconds, normally every ten minutes although some operators key randomly. The signal is not strong to begin with, antennas are often omnidirectional, and scattering from metal surfaces weakens the signal further. Decoding a rapidly-moving airplane over the time period, even with interleaving of ID's within the protocol, is highly unlikely at best and impossible in practicality. Furthermore, there are simply not enough transmitters and receivers in that area of the world to capture enough useful date. What do I know? Very little actually; however, until recent retirement, I worked full-time in the wireless world as an RF (Wireless) engineer for over 50-years and been a ham radio operator since 1969. I have 13 WSPR beacons and 17 WSPR receivers. My call is NI5F. Look me up on wsprnet.org
ghstark
Greg S 3
Great info Bill, thanks. Presumably, they can test the accuracy of this technique any time and many times by trying it on existing aircraft flying through the Indian Ocean and compare the actual track with their WSPR-computed track.
ni5f
Bill Echols 3
Testing at 1-GHz using ADSB will act very differently as compared with high frequencies used by WSPR; 1-GHz has very short wavelengths and reflects differently than the much longer wavelength WSPR frequencies. Note that intercept radar use very short wavelengths (GHz frequencies) most of the time today for a reason, that is resolution. Also, for those mathematically inclined, f(doppler) = 2 * Velocity(aircraft)* COS(theta - angle of intercept) * [frequency(transmitter)/speed of light] in Hertz. Therefore, you can see doppler is directly proportional to frequency.

Furthermore, the WSPR dataset includes only the result over the 1:50-second interval. You cannot parse out the microsecond-to-microsecond frequency shifts, that is , doppler, without that data. Also, many WSPR operators are not time-locked to Stratum 1 clocks; the result is slightly inaccurate timing and frequency center. My WSPR transmitters are all GPS-3D-Fixed (slaved) using the 1PPS pulse to ensure timing and frequency; about half of my receivers, in contrast, are GPS-fixed. The non-GPS-locked receivers use NTP to keep the Raspberry Pi clocks fairly accurate. So my transmit WSPR data is nano-second accurate but my receivers may not be.

This may be more than you want to know. I am just illustrating the facts behind my statement that the WSPR database should not be used, or cannot be used, to determine anything but propagation paths and relative signal strengths.
ni5f
Bill Echols 4
I can partially test it now with aircraft flying overhead here. I have 100,000's of daily hits to my fixed ADSB receiver with constant daytime air traffic flying from Atlanta to the Florida beaches, day and night east-west traffic to south Florida, and the consistent overflights of rotary-wing students from Fort Rucker (yeah, I know, it has a new girlly name). The biggest problem with aircraft is the Doppler shift caused by the motion of the aircraft; and the faster it goes, the more the frequency shift outside the very narrow WSPR bandwidth window ( a few Hertz wide ).
myalias
myalias 1
I can't speak to WSPR, but when I ran an ADS-B station from my Toronto balcony that contributed to FlightAware (I was in the top 15 at one point), I would sometimes get messages from well over the horizon in New Jersey up to 700 km away. My best guess for the source of propagation is high altitude trans-Atlantic airplanes reflecting the messages. My normal range of reception was about 430 km (being about 70 m up helped), so I could pick up traffic over Harrisburg or Albany but not Philadelphia or NYC.

I had a condo building go up at one point, blocking part of my eastern horizon, but it also reflected a fair amount of message from the east, presumably off the plentiful glass. Not traffic landing at Pearson, which would be blocked by the downtown towers, but higher flying aircraft. I learned a lot about microwaves running that station. I should really get a ham licence. I'd like to get into WSPR.
bmac
bruce mac 28
Mentor Pilot is excellent! There is new RF science at work here and worth a new search effort. Jump to 42:00 min into video to understand the new data. The entire video is best summary yet.
Bayouflier
Bayouflier 5
Agreed. This is by far the best report on the subject.
swinkey58
Daniel Hagan 2
Thanks for the 42 minute tip. Good stuff
sparkie624
sparkie624 10
I am not optimistic, but I hope they find it to give closure to all the families who lost loved ones!
yr2012
matt jensen 0
What they need to do is pay closer attention to the ocean currents that deposited the parts onto Reunion and Madagascar islands. Backtrack from there
ExCalbr
Victor Engel 6
They have done that already. A problem is how chaotic the ocean currents are/were in that area. The wide area of recovered debris illustrates how difficult that would be.

[This comment has been downvoted. Show anyway.]

ThomasFrisch
Thomas Frisch 4
The thinking is, whoever was at the controls was doing his utmost to ensure that the plane would never be found, so flew it as far as he could to one of the remotest corners of Earth - the southern Indian Ocean. The pilot was, almost certainly, Capt Zahari Shah, very experienced with >18000 hrs TT (>8600 hrs on the B777. His FO, Fariq Hamid, was finishing his transition to the B777 and MH370 was his last training flight; he had just 39 hrs on type.Another interesting book to read is 'The missing plane' by Capt Verne Pugiev (published in 2022). It's a fictional reconstruction of MH370 by an experienced, qualified B777 captain. He has an interesting theory on how the captain managed to isolate himself in the cockpit and prevent the FO from re-entering it. Incapacitating the pax was simple enough but in the novel Pugiev has the FO staying alive until the very end and that makes for interesting reading.
charlie02vy
Charlie Roberts 1
It's actually not that hard to.isolate the cockpit. I will not go into it, being that I work in aviation maintenance and these are bits of information that everyone does not need to know.
TimDyck
Tim Dyck 2
Thanks for the discretion. Many people would start by boasting how to do it and give the wrong people info they don’t need to know.
ThomasFrisch
Thomas Frisch 2
I hate to disappoint you, Tim and Charlie, but Pugiev in "The missing plane" explains in some detail how to lock someone out of a B777 cockpit but the procedure does take considerable insider knowledge. Pugiev theorizes on how the captain managed to stay alive and functioning in the cockpit while the FO survived the rest of the flight in the cabin -- that's the most interesting part of the book...but of course it's largely theoretical.
Greg1043
Greg1043 2
You assume far to much.

Wouldn’t take long to incapacitate the passengers by depleting the oxygen levels especially if there is a way to disable the oxygen mask release from deploying.

The masks have a limited use intended to allow the plane to descend to an altitude sufficient to allow passengers to not need them to breathe. Roughly below 10,000 feet.

Since it hasn’t been found, we have no definitive information of the actions/event, or lack thereof, within the passenger cabin. Even hit the masked were deployed, could you know if it was midflight or on impact.

The passengers may have tried.

It would stand to reason with a large passenger list there would be calls or text messages sent by passengers if they were aware of anything amiss like oxygen masks deploying.

it may happen on impact, so they can’t really tell without the FDR or CVT or the plane and what happened when.

Flying to a remote area might also help in preventing any way for passengers to have enough of a signal to call /message anyone that far out.

You assume people were actually aware of their location.

Reading books, watching movies, sleeping working on a laptop to write documents for work or emails they would send after landing or even just talking to fellow passengers would all make it easy to fly severely off course.

No need to name call here in any event.
Flashy06
Greg Gordon 3
A lot of good detail here, very neat. However I bailed after too many commercials and promos. My patience wears too thin.
ThomasFrisch
Thomas Frisch 3
Larry Vance, a highly experienced aircraft accident investigator, in his book MH370: Mystery solved (published in 2018) argues authoritatively that the aircraft ended its flight with a pilot-controlled ditching, intended to minimize its breakup. His theory is based mainly on a detailed analysis of the flaperon recovered on Reunion Island in 2015.
I also think that Mentour Pilot's latest summary of the MH370 incident is the best yet.
sierra17
sierra17 3
Oh dear - more mentions of WSPR which has already been debunked by the Nobel Prize winning Joe Taylor, who invented WSPR. He says that WSPR cannot detect aircraft locations such as is claimed by some MH370 conspirators.
https://mh370.radiantphysics.com/2021/12/19/wspr-cant-find-mh370/
LeanderWilliams
Leander Williams 1
Petter always has great content on the Mentour Pilot and Mentour Now channels. He demonstrates why my go-to aviation channels are Mentour Pilot, Blancolirio, and VAS Aviation. Just the facts, ma'am.
IFlyUBuy
IFlyUBuy 0
Can you say Diego Garcia?
TimDyck
Tim Dyck 1
So how did they hide all this when there are usually over 3000 military personnel stationed there?
brbkolb
Brian Kolb -9
Bingo. And that's why the "official story" will forever remain a mystery. Meanwhile, anyone with half a brain can see that DG is exactly where it landed. There was no crash.
bbabis
bbabis 7
So, please explain confirmed torn off and damaged parts of the aircraft washing up on shore.
wb6csh7
Michael Hamann -1
This is a fairly OLD STORY, at least 2 years old! See: https://www.the-sun.com/news/4241211/mh370-mystery-solved-richard-godfrey/

https://www.9news.com.au/national/mh370-crash-location-pinpointed-in-indian-ocean-new-research-claims/9769769c-6a71-4dd4-8dcc-6206396a66c3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcIwt2bRDkc

and: https://www.the-sun.com/news/4180211/mh370-expert-found-exact-spot-missing-plane/

Mental Pilot just plegiaraized from these sites and wants credit. Nothing new, IMHO.
wb6csh7
Michael Hamann 2
Pehaps plagiarize was a bit too strong. But I disagree strongly with the statement that Mentour Pilot (MP) "researches thoroughly" his videos. He formerly posted a laughable "reverse thrusters" (RT) video where he unequivocally stated that aircraft ONLY use RTs upon landing on slippery runways! According to MP, in dry weather they do NOT decrease landing distance. This defies the laws of Physics and several viewers caught him on it! Myself included, but he removed my remarks TWICE, so I am NOT a fan of his channel anymore. I seriously began to doubt he was really a commercial pilot, that video was so wrong!

It is apparent to me that he has somehow edited this 5 year old video, but you can watch the edited version at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OguKthkuaT4&t=775s

Oh, and thanks for the downvotes! Those with differing opinions are obviously NOT WELCOME here!
pasawicz
Thomas Pasawicz 3
Michael, I watched the MP video and at the six minute mark he states: "On the landing, we always select reverse thrust, always." That seems to contradict your claim regarding only using RT on slippery runways.

MP does appear to have misspoken at 1:55 when he stated: "If it's on a dry runway, the thrust reversers doesn't reduce the landing distance at all." As per NASA Technical Memorandum 109158 (Introduction): "The decelerating forces available on current commercial transports consist of wheel brakes, aerodynamic braking (such as flaps and speedbrakes) and thrust reversers. As shown in figure 1, the contribution of thrust reversers in terms of decreased stopping distance is small on a dry runway, but can be significant on contaminated runways when wheel braking effectiveness is greatly diminished." Looking at figure 1, the difference is indeed small on a dry runway, practically nil. I'll link to the document so you can see for yourself.

Thank you for your comment, it lead to my learning something new today. My fact check on MP's comment is that he was "mostly correct" but technically in error.

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19950014289/downloads/19950014289.pdf
TimDyck
Tim Dyck 2
I’m not sure why the post was downvoted. I havn’t got through all your links yet but intend on checking them out when I GST time. Thanks for the post and the links.
ExCalbr
Victor Engel 1
That word "plagiaraized" [sic] is a strong word. Did you notice the dozens of sources he listed in the description?
LeanderWilliams
Leander Williams 1
I agree. Petter researches thoroughly and always lists his source. You plagiarize when you use the words of others and claim them as yours. People should look up the definition of plagiarism before accusing someone of doing that. That's the entire reason that Petter waited so long to voice his opinion on the matter. He wanted to give the facts AS THEY HAVE BEEN REPORTED, and not just add to the speculation of existing hypothesis.
Kci0
Billy Croan 0
Maybe the figure 8's were to identify a sea vessel that had agreed to pick him up. A submarine perhaps. If he established a glide and then jumped out a rear exit before impact with a pfd he definitely would have had to kill everyone from hypoxia beforehand, but wow what a mystery.
TimDyck
Tim Dyck 1
Now there is a theory I haven’t heard before. Was this pilot part of some master spy organization that has submarines that can find someone in the dark in the ocean without being noticed. But that leaves the question of why go to all that trouble? There are easier ways to disappear.
BTW you should take up writing, you have the beginning of a good novel there.
Kci0
Billy Croan -2
If you cared about facts, you would know it was daylight when the plane contacted the water.
But you don't, so.. have fun Timmy?

The Indian ocean is plenty big enough for two parties to meet up with nobody else seeing, and searching/verifying privacy would explain the figure 8's. or perhaps burning off altitude without wandering too far.

The US military regularly does arctic exercises where planes meet up on the ice sheet where a submarine will pop up through the ice. That sounds harder to me than in the open water where they could just set off a smoke signal or a flare. Though I'd bet they used military radios.

I doubt the goal of the MH370 was for one pilot to disappear.

There were probably some passengers that someone (or some government agency) wanted dead though, in a way that wouldn't look targeted at them specifically. A lot of possible people on that plane. Someone aboard had information or evidence that some government wanted gone. This has happened several times before albeit with smaller vehicles.

We JUST saw that the US government was willing to invest in a three year long operation to (try to) insert a backdoor in all GNU+Linux computers (libxz). I'm sure whoever did MH370 would plan even longer for something that big.

[This comment has been downvoted. Show anyway.]

dkenna
dkenna 7
That is easy to say when you don’t have any relationship to or had loved ones on that flight. I know if I did, I wouldn’t rest until it was found. When a 777 loaded with pax goes missing, you find it. No matter how long.
sparkie624
sparkie624 9
They have a lot better chance that me and you do sitting here as Armchair Critics!
ghstark
Greg S 2
Sadly, I think you're correct. Not only is finding the wreckage almost impossible, but if they do somehow find it those black boxes have been submerged in salt water for 10 years. There's a good chance they've already been compromised so severely that no data can be recovered.
bbabis
bbabis -4
We know "about" where MH370 is and that it was navigated to that spot. We know that anyone without a cockpit oxygen mask was long dead before the flights' termination. We know that it severely broke up at impact if not before. The CVR, if anything is usable, would only tell about the last 30 minutes which we pretty much already know. Would finding more pieces of it on the bottom of the ocean tell us any more than we already know? Many millions of people are missing in the world. Does anything other than curiosity justify looking further for these?
ghstark
Greg S 8
All good points, but ...

"We know that anyone without a cockpit oxygen mask was long dead before the flights' termination..."

Although that seems likely for many reasons, we don't really know that.
bbabis
bbabis 4
Passenger oxygen masks are for feel good theater and not designed or intended to sustain life above 25,000 feet. The problem is not the lack of oxygen. It's the lack of pressure to move the oxygen into your blood cells. The passenger masks, if used properly, provide an extra oxygen flow for 22 minutes or so to allow time for an aircraft to descend to a livable pressure altitude. If the aircraft doesn't descend as MH370 didn't, it does not matter how much oxygen you breathe in, it isn't going into your system and you will lose consciousness and ultimately die. A properly trained pilot with a cockpit mask which is capable of providing oxygen under pressure can easily outlive everyone else before descending for their own comfort or repressurizing the aircraft.
lvenable
lvenable 1
How is it that you know the cabin was depressurized?
TimDyck
Tim Dyck 2
We don’t. Like everything about this incident there is only speculation based on the few facts we have and the various theories. When people assume something they are often wrong.
bbabis
bbabis 1
If your plan is to murder 238 people, maybe just letting them go to sleep and never wake up would be an easy thing to do. Just sayin'.
ThomasFrisch
Thomas Frisch 1
Well, do you have any better idea on how to incapacitate 227 passengers or do you think whoever was at the plane's flight controls was able -- for the next 6 or 7 hours -- to keep the passengers believing they were heading to Beijing when in fact they were flying in the opposite direction to the southern Indian Ocean? Or maybe you figure, like Brian Kolb, they landed in Diego Garcia and have adapted to island life in the central Indian Ocean (and having a good laugh at our expense).
sparkie624
sparkie624 4
I would not expect much from the FDR or CVR... The captain planned that well... If he did not pull the CVR and FDR breakers, I would be incredibly surprised that he would over look that point! If anything is on it, during the last minutes, you might hear why he did it, but I very seriously doubt it. I think they would not show anything following the FO Leaving the cockpit!
ColinSeftel
Colin Seftel 3
It's unlikely that the aircraft was severely broken up, because so little floating debris was found. So a more likely theory is that the aircraft made relatively gentle contact with the ocean, filled with water and sank mostly intact.
bbabis
bbabis 4
Some of the pieces recovered were bulkhead, galley, and seat pieces from inside the aircraft. Those only come out with violent breakup. There most likely was a lot of floating debris after impact but by the time searchers reached the middle of the Indian Ocean nothing was left. It's amazing that any of it made it to a beach.
dkenna
dkenna 1
Only thing is; to have a “gentle” impact in water to keep it in a decent enough condition to not break completely apart would require a skilled pilot to pull off. And if so; why didn’t anyone get out on rafts? Was everyone except the pilot already deceased at that point? Just very strange whatever the reason…
ssobol
Stefan Sobol 2
Very difficult to make a "gentle" landing on the water in the wide open ocean. There was a 767 that made a controlled ditching and it broke up badly. Video on YouTube I'm sure.
dkenna
dkenna 1
Yes, that was a highjacked Egypt Air 767 i think?
ThomasFrisch
Thomas Frisch 3
Stefan Sobol referred to the ditching of Ethiopian Flt 961 off the Comoros Islands in November 1996. This was a B767 that had been hijacked by 3 Ethiopians, one of whom was in the cockpit when the aircraft ran out of fuel and interfered with the flight crew and the controls, so the ditching was only part-controlled. Both pilots survived, along with 48 others out of a total of 175 occupants.
The other incident you're probably thinking of is Egyptair 990, a B767 that crashed in the Atlantic off Nantucket in October 1999. This accident has not been satisfactorily resolved. The US NTSB concluded that it was due to deliberate control inputs by an Egyptair FO (i.e. pilot suicide) whereas the Egyptian authorities claim the flight controls were faulty.
dkenna
dkenna 2
Thank you for the correction. I mixed the two up. Posting before my coffee was finished and brain still half asleep…how foolish of me!! ;-)
ExCalbr
Victor Engel 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIjICTMKqUA
TimDyck
Tim Dyck 1
Thanks for the link.
nathansthepilot
Nathan Cox -6
I find it hard to believe that they can’t find the aircraft if they really wanted to. You’re telling me with all of the spy satellites that China, Russia and America have, that we couldn’t have pinpointed where it went down? If the governments that be really wanted to find MH370, they would have by now. Just my $.02. Most likely this was an inside job and they have zero intention of actually finding it. Vote me down if you wish, but I think all points of view should be seen and heard. For me, there were just too many steps taken to make this airplane “disappear.”
sierra17
sierra17 -6
Oh dear - more mentions of WSPR which has already been debunked by the Nobel Prize winning Joe Taylor, who invented WSPR. He says that WSPR cannot detect aircraft locations such as is claimed by some MH370 conspirators.
Greg1043
Greg1043 3
I think you mean “conspiracy theorists”. “Conspirators” would mean they were part of the event, as opposed to someone invent or support a theory of what may have ocvured.
ArthurNetteler
Arthur Netteler -7
New World Order and US Government. WILL NEVER ALLOW the TRUTH of what happened to MH370, TO EVERY BE PUBLIC!
dkenna
dkenna 3
Haha!!! Thanks for the laugh this morning!! Always good to start the day off with a good chuckle. It’s gonna be a good day.

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